Should you buy that $550,000 townhome right now, or wait until spring when rates might drop?
Here is why this question keeps you up at night: Sales are down 15%. Prices? Holding steady. Inventory is climbing, but still below 2019. The economy looks solid. Recession whispers are getting louder.
You are not imagining the confusion. The signals really are mixed.
If you have been lying awake running mortgage calculations, building spreadsheets comparing neighborhoods, second-guessing every decision, you are not alone. Every first-time buyer in Calgary, every active investor, every strategic seller is asking the same thing: What happens in 2026?
Let me level with you from the start: I cannot tell you what WILL happen. Nobody can. What I can do is show you three plausible scenarios for the Calgary housing market forecast, explain what drives each one, and help you think through which assumptions make sense for YOUR situation.
Because that is what actually matters here, not what happens to "the market," but what happens to you.
Understanding the Calgary Housing Market Forecast: How to Use This Analysis
Here is what this forecast IS:
A scenario analysis showing three possible 2026 outcomes with explicit assumptions behind each. A framework for making decisions when you do not have perfect information. A micro-market breakdown showing how different Calgary communities might actually perform.
Here is what this forecast IS NOT:
A prediction of exactly what will happen. A guarantee that any scenario will materialize. A substitute for professional financial advice tailored to your specific situation.
We cannot predict the future. But we can help you think through it systematically.
What You Will Gain from This Analysis
By the end, you will understand:
- The five-year context that explains how we got here (2020-2025)
- Current market fundamentals going into 2026
- Three scenarios with probability weightings and specific assumptions
- Community-level insights (not just citywide statistics that hide the real story)
- Decision frameworks for buyers, investors, sellers, and portfolio owners
If you are brand new to Calgary real estate, start with our comprehensive first-time buyer guide. Want to model investment scenarios with actual numbers? Bookmark our investment calculator guide.
Calgary Real Estate Market Trends: 5-Year Historical Analysis (2020-2025)
Calgary's residential real estate market appreciated roughly 35% between 2020 and 2025.
That $400,000 property you eyed in June 2020? Probably worth $540,000 today.
The number feels abstract until you remember what 2020 felt like.
2020-2021: The COVID Crash and Recovery
June 2020. The world was locked down. Oil prices had briefly gone negative. Calgary's unemployment hit 15%. Nobody knew if real estate would crash, stagnate, or somehow survive.
If you bought then? You felt like an idiot. Every friend questioned your timing. Every headline predicted economic collapse. But properties were available. Sellers were desperate.
By late 2021, recovery had begun. Vaccines rolled out. Remote work normalized. Oil recovered to $65-70/barrel. People realized they needed space, not cramped city apartments. Calgary suddenly looked affordable compared to Toronto and Vancouver.
2022-2023: The Acceleration Phase
This was the boom. Bidding wars. Properties selling in 48 hours. Buyers waiving conditions. First-time buyers getting outbid by investors fleeing Toronto and Vancouver pricing.
- Benchmark detached price climbed to $585,000 by Q4 2023 (20% appreciation in 2 years)
- Inventory compressed to 1.5 months supply (anything under 3 months is seller's market)
- Multiple offers became standard on well-priced properties
2024-2025: The Normalization Period
The party slowed down. Not a crash. Just a return to reality.
- Sales volume declined 12% year-over-year as rates normalized
- Inventory stabilized around 2.5-3 months supply (balanced market)
- Price appreciation moderated to 2-4% annually (healthy, sustainable)
Calgary Housing Market 2026: Current Fundamentals
Sales are down. Prices are stable. Inventory is up, but not flooding the market.
We have moved from a seller's market (2022-2023) to a balanced market (2024-2025). Sellers no longer get multiple offers after 48 hours. Buyers no longer feel desperate urgency to waive conditions.
Both sides are negotiating. It is not a crash. It is normalization.
Current Benchmark Prices (Q4 2025)
| Property Type | Price | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | $595,000 | +2% |
| Semi-detached | $465,000 | +3% |
| Row/Townhome | $385,000 | +4% |
| Apartment | $285,000 | Flat |
Three Scenarios for 2026
| Scenario | Probability | Assumptions | Expected Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic Growth | 25% | Interest rates drop to 4.0-4.5%, strong migration continues, energy sector stability, no recession | 5-8% benchmark appreciation, sales volume increase 10-15%, bidding wars re-emerge in high-demand segments |
| Base Case | 50% | Interest rates plateau at 4.5-5.0%, moderate migration, energy sector stability, soft economic landing | 2-4% benchmark appreciation, sales volume stable, balanced market conditions persist |
| Downside | 25% | Interest rates remain elevated, migration slows, energy sector weakness, mild recession | -2% to +1% price change, sales volume decline 15-20%, buyer's market conditions |
Community-Level Insights
| Community Area | Key Characteristics | Expected 2026 Appreciation |
|---|---|---|
| Northwest Corridor (Sage Hill, Evanston, Kincora) | Supply constraints persist. Family demographics drive demand. | 3-7% depending on scenario |
| Southeast Master-Planned (Mahogany, Auburn Bay, Legacy) | Strong rental yields (5.0-5.5%). Cash flow stability. | 2-4% |
| Inner City (Bridgeland, Inglewood, Kensington) | Supply constraints maintain premium. | 4-8% |
Decision Frameworks
For First-Time Buyers
Core question: "Can we afford to carry this property through the pessimistic scenario?"
Buy when your finances are stable and you can afford the downside. Model your monthly carrying costs assuming rates stay elevated and appreciation stalls. If you can comfortably afford the property in the downside scenario, you have room to benefit if optimistic or base case materializes.
Don't count on appreciation to make the numbers work. Count on stable employment, emergency fund coverage, and debt service ratios under 35%.
For Investors
Core question: "Does this investment deliver acceptable returns across all three scenarios?"
Focus on cash flow, not appreciation speculation. If the property only works in the optimistic scenario, it's speculation. If it delivers positive cash flow in the downside scenario, it's an investment.
Model rent-to-price ratios. Target communities where rental yields exceed 5% and vacancy risk is low. Accept that 2026 may not deliver capital appreciation, but rental income provides downside protection.
For Sellers
Core question: "What am I optimizing for at this life stage?"
Consider risk tolerance and alternative deployment options. If you're selling to deploy capital elsewhere (retirement, business investment, debt reduction), current market conditions favor decisive action. Balanced markets mean negotiation, not bidding wars, but properties are moving.
If you're selling to upgrade or downsize within Calgary, you're playing both sides. Market timing becomes less critical when you're simultaneously buying and selling.
Your Next Steps
- Determine which scenario resonates most with your assumptions
- Identify 3-5 target communities aligned with your strategy
- Model your financial capacity under the pessimistic case
- Explore current available inventory in your target communities
The market will do what it does. Your job is to be prepared for all three scenarios and positioned to capitalize on whichever one materializes.
Last Updated: November 2025